The Knoxville MSA’s unemployment rate in March was 2.7% (up from 2.6% in February and down from 2.8% in March 2023.) Knox County’s unemployment rate in March was 2.5% (up from 2.4% in February and down from 2.6% in March 2023.) Tennessee’s unemployment rate was 3.0% in March (up from 2.8% in February and down from 3.1% in last March.) The U.S. unemployment rate was 3.9% in March (down from 4.2% in February and up from 3.6% in last March.)

The size of the total labor force slightly increased from February to March at the local, state, and national levels. The Knoxville MSA’s labor force increased 1.4% from 444,661 in February to 451,048 in March. Knox County’s labor force increased 1.6% from 253,407 in February to 257,412 in March. Tennessee’s labor force increased 1.0% from 3,394,112 in February to 3,429,009 in March. The national labor force increased 0.4% from 167,285,000 in February to 167,960,000 in March.
                                                                                                       

How can Knoxville small business outperform in a recessionary environment if one materializes in 2024?

It’s true that small business have historically underperformed in the first half of a recession because they are generally more economically sensitive businesses. On average, small business have declined approximately 14% in the first half of a recession versus a smaller decline of 10% for large caps.

However, I believe a moderate recession is largely priced in at this point, given the valuation disparity and the fact that small business are down almost 30% since their November 2021 peak.

Small business have historically led all asset classes out of recession, beating large-caps by 4%, on average, in the second half of a recession and 17% one year after a recession ends.
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Curious Dawg is an award-winning digital marketing consultancy and full-service agency. Curious Dawg was founded on the idea that every modern business needs a CMO-level expert to lead digital marketing efforts. We customize data-driven, performance-focused solutions to help launch, scale, and invigorate businesses of all sizes, industries, and revenue models. We’re shifting the agency paradigm by putting client success ahead of our own. Our comprehensive à la carte menu of services and month-to-month contracts mean you get only what you need, when you need it.

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